The primary and immediate impact of a depreciating rupee is on the importers who will have to shell out more for the same quantity and price. However, it is a boon for the exporters as they receive more rupees in exchange for dollars. The rupee depreciation has wiped away some of the gains that would have accrued to India from international oil and fuel prices dropping to pre-Ukraine war levels.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales continued to be lower in June compared to May with urban sales witnessing a steeper decline than rural. Sales of goods from shampoos to biscuits stayed lower due to inflationary pressures on commodities. This pushed consumer companies to continue taking price hikes, thus impacting demand, according to data by Bizom.
"At the moment, the fall is arrested (and it) is very clear. The growth is happening. We will only be looking at the steady growth. It may be slow but steady," Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told reporters in New Delhi.
An independent central bank, free from political interference, is in the best position to ensure low and stable inflation over time.
Maruti Suzuki was the biggest gainer among Sensex scrips, rising 5.89 per cent, followed by M&M up 5.29 per cent.
Retail inflation declined to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent in December 2022, mainly due to softening prices of food items, according to official data released on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was at 5.88 per cent in November 2022 and 5.66 per cent in December 2021.
The government on Thursday more than doubled the price of natural gas that is used to produce electricity, make fertilisers, turned into CNG and piped to household kitchens for cooking, on the back of a spike in global energy prices. The price of gas produced from old regulated fields, such as the nation's largest gas field of Bassein of ONGC, will rise to a record high of $6.10 per million British thermal unit (mmBtu) from the current $2.90 per mmBtu, according to the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). The new price, which is likely to result in a hike in CNG and piped cooking gas rates, will be for six months beginning April 1.
Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, tells Puneet Wadhwa that the US bond market that hit bottom in 1981 and has been in a bull-run since then, is coming to an end.
India's crude oil imports are coming in from a changing mix of countries, with the top three accounting for around 60 per cent of total imports. Russia emerged as the largest source of crude oil imports for India in June, as per the latest available data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The data which is released with a lag, showed that Russian imports accounted for 24 per cent of the total crude imports into the country.
RBI will be cautious easing rates further given oil price uncertainties
Amid fast-depleting forex reserves, the Finance Ministry on Wednesday signalled that it was not in favour of selling the dollar to defend any particular level of the rupee. "Let it (rupee) reach whatever levels it has to reach. We can't fritter away reserves on defending some artificial, imaginary rate of exchange," a senior finance ministry official told Business Standard. Forex reserves declined to a near two-year low of $545.65 billion as on September 16, down $85.88 billion from the level that existed on February 25, a day after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Sensex closed over 118 points down on Thursday.
Inflation in food articles during May stood at 1.13 per cent, as against 2.55 per cent in April.
For the first time, the rupee declined to the low level of 80 against the US dollar in intra-day spot trading on Monday before ending the session 16 paise lower at 79.98 amid a surge in crude oil prices and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.76 against the greenback but lost ground to touch the psychological low mark of 80 against the American currency. The local unit clawed back some lost ground and closed at 79.98, registering a fall of 16 paise over its previous close.
It is true that the rupee is at least becoming less strong, albeit slowly.
The wholesale price-based inflation rate declined to (-) 4.12 per cent in June on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation in May was (-) 3.48 per cent. In June last year, it was 16.23 per cent.
India's economy continues to be robust, but downside risks such as rising crude oil prices, adverse weather conditions, and the global banking crisis outweigh the upside potential in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the current financial year (FY24), the finance ministry said on Tuesday in its Monthly Economic Review for March. "We reiterate that downside risks to our official forecast of 6.5 per cent for real GDP growth in FY24 dominate upside risks," the review said. "Opec's surprise production cut has seen oil prices rise in April, off their lows of low-seventies per barrel in March.
Traders said falling crude prices in the global market was a big boost for the economy as it lightens the country's import bill burden, eases inflation and current account deficit concerns.
Since August, petrol price has been cumulatively cut by Rs 9.36 per litre.
The 50-share NSE Nifty settled lower by 76.05 points, or 0.88 per cent, at 8,615.25
Gold as well as crude oil prices surged, with the latter even crossing the $103 per barrel mark. The domestic stock market opened deep in the negative territory, tumbling over 1,700 points and eroding investors' wealth by more than Rs 8 lakh crore in less than an hour of start of trade on Thursday.
Sharp rate hike in Russia further raised concerns about the global economy.
Consolidated earnings for oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries (RIL) may report sequential weakness, and modest year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in the June 2024 quarter (Q1FY25), said analysts. Lower refining margins are expected to moderate gains made from other businesses. RIL is slated to report its financial performance for Q1FY25 on July 19.
The NSE Nifty too fell sharply by 68.55 points, or 0.67 per cent, to settle at 10,118.05.
RIL's profit before interest and depreciation increased by 8%.
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led state government is acquiring groundnut at Rs 4,500 per quintal; the market price is Rs 3,500 per quintal
Nomura has forecast the rupee at 61.6 against the dollar in Q1 and at 62 by Q4 of 2015.
Investor wealth worth over Rs 13.44 lakh crore was wiped off on Thursday as the domestic equity markets tumbled along with global risk assets, after Russia launched military operations against Ukraine. Amid intensifying rout in the global financial markets, the 30-share BSE Sensex plummeted 2,702.15 points or 4.72 per cent to end at 54,529.91. The carnage on Dalal Street eroded investor wealth worth Rs 13,44,488.54 crore, taking the total market capitalisation (m-cap) to Rs 2,42,24,179.79 crore on the BSE.
After a sharp sell-off in the past two months, overseas investors were once again seen turning bullish on Indian equities. FIIs bought shares worth Rs 63.5 billion in the past five sessions, their highest weekly investment tally in many months.
However, risks to the outlook stems from possible sub-normal monsoon and higher crude oil prices (on account of the crisis in Iraq)," the Economic Survey 2013-14 tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said.
The hike in prices of petrol and diesel seems to have been put on the backburner with the price of the basket of crude oil that Indian refiners
Markets ended higher, amid firm global cues, and are on track for third straight day of gains.
Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies reiterate his bullish view on Indian equities on the back of a steady fall in Covid cases coupled with a sharp economic recovery in India, reports Puneet Wadhwa.
In the previous week inflation was (-) 1.54 per cent. Wholesale price index-based inflation was 12.53 per cent during the corresponding week a year ago.
Jet Airways on followed its smaller rival SpiceJet and hiked fares by a steep 25 per cent to mitigate the impact of the sharp fall in the rupee value and a near 15 per cent spike in oil prices of late.
Brent crude prices fell to $57 a barrel on Monday from $62 a barrel.
India's import of discounted crude oil from the Russian Federation hit an all-time high in May, with state-run refiner IOC becoming the biggest importer of Russian oil, relegating Reliance Industries to the second place, trade and shipping data show. Indian imports of Russian oil, accounting for over 46 per cent of its total crude oil imports in May, have grown after strong backing by New Delhi, with state-run refiners powering imports of discounted crude. Discounts on Russian oil average around $10 a barrel, said an official from a state-run refiner. IOC's May purchases rose by 64 per cent on the month, and accounted for half of its total crude imports last month, ship tracking data show.
Corporate earnings grew in double digits during the April-June 2022 (Q1FY23) quarter but the momentum waned. Overall corporate earnings in the quarter were down sharply from their highs in FY22. The combined net profit of 2,981 listed companies across sectors in the Business Standard sample was up 22.4 per cent YoY to Rs 2.24 trillion in the June quarter, driven by a big jump in the earnings of banks, non-banking lenders, oil & producers, and FMCG companies. Also, earnings in the corresponding quarter a year ago were affected because of the second wave of the Covid pandemic, even though the numbers were a lot better than Q1FY21 when there was a nationwide lockdown.
Kotak Mahindra Bank was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, sliding 2.68 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Motors, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Nestle and Titan. In contrast, NTPC, Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC, Reliance and HDFC Bank were the gainers.
Sharp fall in capital goods production and manufacturing activity also dented sentiments.
